Home » Dirk Ellingsen: Some considerations if you want a different election outcome in 2024

Dirk Ellingsen: Some considerations if you want a different election outcome in 2024

by Minden Press-Herald

I think Joe Biden will be reelected to serve a second term as President of the United States.  For many of you that makes me the bearer of bad tidings.  Yet read on as I offer possibilities Biden fails to win a second term.

Biden will not prevail in Webster Parish.  He will not triumph in northwest Louisiana.  It is highly unlikely he will claim the electoral votes of the state of Louisiana.  If this were an election for President of Louisiana, Donald Trump would probably win.

But the race is for President of the United States of America.  Why should anyone expect a different result from 2020?   If you are a concerned and perceptive Republican you should cast your vote for former South Carolina Governor and United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley in the presidential primary election.  Louisiana votes Saturday, March 23.

Think beyond the echo chamber of your circle of friends here and your choices of news media outlets.  Although Biden and Trump are unpopular overall, it appears we are in for a rematch.  Battle of the oldest combatants ever for the highest stakes in the land.  Republican primaries present an alternative path.  But most Republicans apparently don’t want to take it.

I might disagree ideologically with other Republican candidates from recent months, but there were clearly palatable party representatives on the debate stages Trump avoided last year.  I think Nikki Haley could beat Joe Biden.  I believe either Ron DeSantis or Chris Christie would have beaten Joe Biden.  Haley’s the only one still in the race and it appears she will go the way of DeSantis and Christie.  Biden and the dastardly Democrats have nothing to do with this.  That is on Republican voters.  I suspect the Biden camp treasures a rematch with Trump.  He is their best chance to stay in the White House.  

Remember on this side of the 2020 election have occurred multiple Trump indictments, court cases, and the January 6, 2021 mob attacks on the Capitol.  Maybe you think the media is picking on a wholly innocent man as many Trump supporters insist.  However, you need some Biden voters from 2020 to feel that way to influence the vote.  I cannot name any.

I see remote possibilities for the November 2024 election resulting in a different winner than November 2020.  Ways Trump could win.  None seem more plausible than Haley defeating Biden but if Trump as the Republican candidate is inevitable, here are some possible paths to victory.  Pick your favorite.

Imagine people who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 have suffered four years of voter’s remorse.  It doesn’t matter if you hate Biden (Joe or Hunter) in 2024 as much or more as you hated him in 2020.  You don’t count because you don’t change the count.  You need new disgruntled former Biden supporters to change their votes.  Lots of them.  Millions of them.  I don’t know any.  I do know some who might switch their vote to Haley.

How about four years of demographic changes favoring Donald Trump?  Many teens too young to vote in 2020 can cast ballots in 2024.  A groundswell of young people eager to support Trump.  You know any kids like that?  How about the other end of the demographic spectrum?  Senior citizens near the end of their lifespans who voted for Biden in 2020 and are no longer around to vote for Democrats.  Of course, this sort of demographic speculation could break for Biden too.  Or just play even to 2020.  That’s not good enough for the Trump cause.

Electoral College intrigue seems Trump’s best chance.  Win some crucial swing states as done in 2016.  You do not have to win the popular vote.  Win back Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and/or Michigan.  Louisiana’s not really a player here.  We’re too tiny.  But besides losing the 2020 national election, Trump endorsed candidates generally crashed and burned in the midterms.  Ask Dr. Oz about Trump’s appeal in the Keystone State.  Or Herschel Walker in the Peach State.

Consider Trump’s selection of a running mate.  What if he found a man or woman so compelling, they won over voters of both parties for seeming to be next in line for the presidency?  Trump fealty is no assurance of charisma.  Mike Pence and his political views seemed wholly suitable.  He did not cross Trump.  But more extreme Trump supporters later wanted to hang him.  I don’t believe even half the Trump supporters want to kill a fellow member of the GOP but the January 6, 2021 demonstration is where Hillary Clinton presciently concocted that basket of deplorables kind of talk.

There could emerge a surprise third-party candidate who siphons off millions of Biden votes.  Maybe a Green Party climate change doomsayer or a dashing young Socialist with more elan than Bernie Sanders.  Republicans would be too smart to vote for such a character but many Democrats might take the bait.

Old man health afflictions could be a game changer.  Biden’s merely four years older than Trump but he is older.  Both make embarrassing gaffes at the podium.  Of course, Haley seems to be firing on all cylinders.

Finally, some wacky conjecture but we must consider all the angles.  Imagine whereas the 2020 election was rigged, the 2024 election will be on the level.  Let’s say whatever tainted the election of 2020 fails to occur in 2024.

Many continue to believe Joe Biden’s 7 million vote win was a mirage.  Skullduggery for the highest office in the land.  A cheat.  Yet they insist Joe Biden’s not smart enough to choreograph so elaborate a subterfuge.  Unseen puppet masters pull the strings.  It doesn’t explain how so many down ballot Republicans were elected and reelected but that’s the theory.

These conspiracy theorists do not subscribe to Occam’s razor sometimes called the principle of parsimony.  That means simpler explanations are usually the correct ones.  So, each of those 2,000 mules in the movie needed to average stealing over 3,500 votes each?  Multiple court rulings against Trump’s appeals (including a Supreme Court he named a third of its roster) are in on the fix?  It’s easier to believe the 2020 election was legitimate.

Maybe a Joe Biden Ireland birth certificate will turn up.  I’ll stop there because I fear it’s getting silly.  Yet perhaps something presented here gives Trump supporters cause for hope.

I don’t frequently vote for Republicans but in recent years I’ve had abiding concerns about the future of the party.  I attributed Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential victory to being less about a love for Trump than dislike for his opponent Hillary Clinton.  To paraphrase P.T. Barnum, “No man ever went broke overestimating her dearth of appeal among the American public.”

Then I began to fret Trump might not be an aberration.  He might not have hijacked the party.  He might best represent its evolving views.  

If you see the contest as Haley vs. Trump and you like the latter, stay the course.  If you see the larger contest as Democrat vs Republican and you like the latter, do what you can at the ballot box to avoid a repeat of 2020.  The rest of the Republican party might mess it up for you with their March 5 Super Tuesday occurring weeks before our Saturday, March 23 primary.  Or the Republican National Convention in July ultimately ensures Trump is on the November ballot. 

Try to see the big picture.  The way to keep Biden out of office is to nominate Haley.  You might have to elevate your disdain for Biden above your love for Trump.  If you can’t do that, you’re likely gonna get four more years of the guy you like to berate as Sleepy Joe.  And four more years of tiresome intramural grumbling.  Help your party if it’s not already too late.

Dirk Ellingsen lives in Minden.

Related Posts